It was the late 1980s when it first became apparent that the computer was going to shrink to the size of a phone. I recall discussing this possibility, and loved to mention this prediction in speeches. I outlined all the functionality of this pocket computer including phone, GPS, and the rest, all with the punchline that the device would have a built-in LoJack-like recovery system because of the inevitability of it being stolen.
In January 2015, Microsoft hinted at such a device—a real computer, not just a gadget full of "apps"—shortly after demoing Continuum. The only difference between 1988 predictions and the aggressive Windows 10 Phone is that a modern all-in-one device like this will inevitably rely on cloud services for the majority of its functionality, not to mention storage.
According to reports, the Windows 10 phone/computer will be a fully functional computer that, when combined with a docking station, will create a full two-monitor workstation with keyboard and mouse. When in this configuration, one assumes that some sort of speaker phone will be built-in, just in case the phone rings while editing a Word document.
This type of device explains a lot of recent Microsoft strategy; it's clear that this product has been in the works for some time. It explains all of Microsoft's cloud strategy and Office 365. It explains why Microsoft bought Nokia and had anything to do with Nokia Mobile. And in some ways, it explains Microsoft getting its feet wet in the hardware business with the Surface laptop/tablet.
It probably explains two other anomalies: Microsoft's very late entry into the second-generation smartphone arena (which was initiated by the iPhone). The company needed a place holder there. And it definitely explains why the Windows 8+ OS is modeled around the phone GUI rather than the other way around.
The idea of a computer-phone like this immediately presents some challenges and raises many questions. The first is: Why did Apple focus on a watch rather than beat Microsoft to the punch with this?
The second is...what about X86 compatibility? Is Windows 10 going to run on existing PCs and weird computer phone hybrids? And will existing applications run on Windows 10?
From what I can tell, the computer phone will run ported code on an advanced Qualcomm chip. While this is fine for many purposes, there are thousands of legacy apps that need X86 to work. Chances are this computer phone will not run them. This is no small problem and the reason this will get off to a rocky start.
There are solutions. Qualcomm could make a future chip with full X86 compatibility and get into that game. But if you read this, it is apparent that Qualcomm thinks x86 is no longer important. Then Intel and AMD can move in on the business. This computer phone will be a weak sister by any standard. Its real value would be in third-world countries. Even so, it's not going to be a cheap item, probably starting at $400-$500. Add more money to get the docking station and the various other utilities required.
At that price you'll be able to buy a cheap minimalist phone plus a real computer in the form of an Intel stick computer or a low-end NUC, and end up with more computing power and compatibility overall.
I'm not going to say that this is an idea whose time has come and gone and come again. You just cannot tell with this audience. Many of today's computer users are just fine with searching for information on the Web using a smartphone. Millions of office workers prefer to squint at laptop screens using so-called desktop replacements (laptops) which are rarely docked anymore. Corporations might be able to make a case for Windows Phone 10 to combine the costs and moving to this model.
Now let's consider the very distinct possibility that Microsoft will not be able to pull this off at all. It will be Google that comes along with a ChromePhone. Ubuntu threatened to jump into this game right after Microsoft's demonstrations. Apple could also make a play.
Continuum is not a done deal and the fact that I had to read about this product strategy in a stock tip sheet does not bode well for the idea or for Microsoft.
This whole idea has tons of publicity and buzz written all over it. Yet we got nothing. There was very little mention of this "breakthrough" in the mainstream media, if any. Just more coverage of the boring Apple Watch.
The lack of serious attention tells me one of four things. First, Microsoft might not be confident that this is a good idea. Second, this idea was likely formed years ago by a team that mostly left the company and the new guys want to promote their own ideas, whatever they are. Third, it's distinctly possible Microsoft has completely lost its mojo and nobody cares about anything it does. Fourth, and my choice, is it's a PR problem.
Personally, I still like the Continuum idea. For me it would be a nice device as a backup or emergency computer or a secured device for confidential information that you literally have with you at all times. It will find some use.
The most important decision: do we call it a computer phone or a phone computer? Both work, but will the device itself actually perform? We'll see.
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